What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting against the spread (ATS) is one of the most commonly offered gambling options alongside moneylines and totals. With this wager type, sportsbooks will project an expected margin of victory for the moneyline favorite; bettors then must decide whether the favorite will win by more than that amount or the underdog will keep things closer and lose by fewer points than the spread amount.

With this guide, we’ll explain how betting against the spread works and why it is such a popular bet type. We will also discuss strategies for successful spread betting and key factors to consider when placing an ATS wager.

How Betting Against the Spread Works

While moneyline wagering involves picking the outright winner of a sporting event, a spread bet on a favorite requires them to win and beat their opponent by more than the spread total. Underdogs are similarly rewarded for keeping the score close, turning a bet on them into a win if they lose by fewer points than the spread total.

Sportsbooks aim to get roughly half the total money from a spread market on either side of the line. If there’s too much action on either side, sportsbooks will adjust the line to accommodate and try to balance the markets.

Let’s take a look at an NFL spread bet from the 2024-25 NFL Season.

In the regular season finale between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings, the moneyline read:

Minnesota Vikings (+130) at Detroit Lions (-150)

This meant the Lions were the moneyline favorite while the Vikings were the moneyline underdog.

However, the spread for the game read:

Minnesota Vikings +3 (-110) at Detroit Lions -3 (-110)

In this scenario, a spread bet on the Vikings would’ve paid out if the Vikings won outright or if they lost by fewer than three points. Conversely, a spread bet on the Lions only would’ve won if Detroit bet the Vikings by four points or more.

The Lions won 31-9, absolutely shattering the spread mark and rewarding savvy Detroit backers.

Because the spread was exactly three points, there was potential for a push. In a push, or tie, the final score exactly matched the sportsbook’s spread total and all bets that were made with that spread are returned.

To avoid this, sportsbooks often use a half-point or “hook” in spread and over/under markets. Since the teams can’t score a half-point, a hook guarantees there won’t be a tie while spread betting.

Spread betting is particularly popular for football and basketball games since the scoring system allows for multiple points to be scored at a time. While it works for baseball (run line) and hockey (puck line), the spread there is almost always +/- 1.5 runs or goals, with payouts deviating from the -110 posting more common with football and basketball.

Why Bettors Choose to Bet Against the Spread

Bettors choose to bet against the spread because it levels the playing field when there is a strong perceived difference in expected win percentage between the two teams. This can make one-sided games more interesting to watch and it allows for strategic betting opportunities.

For example, spread betting provides the chance to middle your bets, backing either side of a spread bet in a way that leads to bigger profits when you win. Check out our guide to middling for a more in-depth look at the strategy.

Additionally, placing a spread bet on the moneyline favorite almost always means a larger profit on a win than a moneyline wager. Using the example above, a $100 moneyline wager on Detroit would’ve profited $66.67 while a $100 spread bet on the Lions would’ve profited $90.91.

The inverse is also true: if you think the moneyline underdog will win outright, your money will go farther with a moneyline bet than a spread. Using the above example and changing the result so the Vikings won outright, a $100 spread bet would’ve again profited $90.91 but a moneyline wager would’ve profited $130.

Key Factors to Consider When Betting Against the Spread

There are many factors to consider when betting against the spread beyond the line itself. Team performance against the spread can be dramatically different than a team’s straight-up record.

For example, in the 2024-25 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs finished the regular season 15-2 overall but were 7-9-1 ATS. On the opposite end of the standings, the Jacksonville Jaguars were 4-13 overall but 10-7 against the spread.

Given the NFL’s short season and large roster turnover from year to year, it can be difficult to rely on the results from previous seasons when making ATS picks. This strategy tends to work better for basketball spread betting, especially NBA wagers.

Injuries can also make a major difference in the spread total. For example, if Steph Curry is taking a game off during the Warriors’ season, it’s not uncommon to see the spread shift in favor of Golden State’s opponent for that game (or if the opponent was already favored, the spread line could push even higher).

For games in outdoor stadiums, the weather can also impact scoring. Temperature extremes tend to favor lower scoring across sports making wider spread margins shrink, while for baseball, teams who generate most of their offense from home runs can get a boost when the wind is blowing out from home plate.

Pros and Cons of Betting Against the Spread

Here are a few of the pros and cons of betting against the spread:

Pros:

• Potential for better odds when backing a betting favorite
• Can encourage betting on underdogs in what might otherwise be lopsided games
• Offers enhanced betting opportunities for strategies like middling and hedging
• Still works with live betting

Cons:

• Harder to predict than moneyline wagers
• Line and/or odds movement could change after you’ve placed your wager making your wager less favorable
• There is potential for the team you’re backing to win but not cover, turning your bet into a loss
• House edge (or “vig”) can result in lower profits over time

Strategies for Betting Against the Spread

When betting against the spread, we hope you’ll keep these strategies in mind:

• Track line movement: One of the best things you can do to help improve your spread betting strategy is to write down the line as soon as it is available then track movement in the leadup to the event. This can be more of a challenge for basketball due to the shorter time period between games, but it can help you get a sense of the degree to which lines move and help you identify opportunities for well-timed wagers. 
• Don’t blindly bet favorites: According to BetMGM, favorites against the spread win roughly 47% of the time while underdogs win roughly 51% of the time (with pushes accounting for the other 2%). This doesn’t mean 51% of your bets against the spread will win, but it shows why automatically backing the moneyline favorite against the spread is a flawed strategy. 
• Account for the home team advantage: Typically, home teams receive a spread that adjusts in their favor by 2.5 or 3.0 points. However, in the 2024-25 NFL season, home teams were 129-133-5 ATS. This could be due to the extra point swing in the home team’s favor, so taking that extra percentage into account can impact your assessment of the outcome. 

Conclusion

Spread betting can be a fun addition to your gambling repertoire, but it often requires more research than moneylines, totals, or props wagers. Before playing a spread wager, assess the risks involved and decide if making the wager is worth your time, research, and financial backing. 

We always encourage new spread bettors to start small and practice disciplined betting as they continue to develop their spread strategies. Accept that losses are going to happen sometimes, and make adjustments as needed while you go. 

If spread betting doesn’t strike your fancy, check out our other betting strategy guides to find something more appealing to your gambling goals. 

Good luck, have fun, and always gamble responsibly!!

FAQ

How does a push (tie) work in ATS betting?

When a push (tie) occurs during ATS betting, all bets are voided and the stakes are returned to the bettors. Sportsbooks try to avoid this scenario by including a “hook” or “half-point” at the end of the spread to ensure a clear winner and loser when the score goes final. 

What factors should I consider when betting against the spread?

When betting against the spread, some factors you should consider include injury reports, weather reports, record to date against the spread for the current season, ATS record from the previous season, and other in-game matchups. 

What are the advantages of betting against the spread?

Betting against the spread can make betting on the moneyline favorite more profitable with better odds than a moneyline wager. ATS wagers can also add interest to what might otherwise be a lopsided game, and they offer the opportunity to use more advanced betting strategies like hedging and middling.

How do favorites and underdogs affect the spread?

Betting favorites can affect the spread when large amounts of money are placed on them compared to the underdog. Sometimes, if enough money is placed on either the favorite or the underdog, the line will move to reflect the betting action. 

What are some common strategies for betting against the spread?

One common strategy for betting against the spread is to try middling the wager. With a middle bet, bettors place a second wager on the opposite side of their initial stake while trying to target a result in the middle of both wagers so both bets win. 

How do line movements impact ATS betting?

Line movements impact ATS betting by making certain wagers more or less valuable depending on the adjustment. They can also allow bettors to try a middling strategy, backing both outcomes while trying to have the final score result exactly in the middle of each wager so they both win.