Also called “totals betting,” over/under betting is an alternative to gambling on winners, spreads, and props within a sporting event. This guide to over/under betting explains how the betting type works and offers strategies to help you get started.
Over/under betting, also called “totals betting,” is one of the three basic betting types along with moneyline and spread wagers. However, instead of picking the winners of a sporting event, over/under betting centers around the combined point total of the two teams, regardless of which team emerges victorious.
This makes over/under betting an excellent starting point for beginning sports bettors. The straightforward nature of totals betting allows newcomers to learn how to analyze matchups and process betting statistics before moving on to more advanced bet types.
Over/under bets work by attempting to project the combined total score of two teams in a game. Sportsbooks will set a hypothetical number that is as close to the actual outcome as possible, leaving bettors to decide whether they think the actual total will finish over or under the bookmaker’s line.
Let’s take a look at an example of over/under betting:
During a football game between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants, the over/under line is set at 45. If you took the over, your bet would pay out whether the Giants won 26-20 or the Cowboys won 46-0; as long as the combined total exceeds 45 points, you’ll win.
The opposite is true for the under. If the teams fail to reach a combined 45 points, your bet of the under would win.
We picked this example because it presents an interesting possibility: what if the combined score is exactly 45 points?
If that were to happen, the game would be scored as a “push.” When a push happens, all relevant bets would have their stakes returned as though no bets were made.
To avoid pushes, sportsbooks will often use a “half-point” on the totals line. This guarantees a true winner and loser on the bet because teams can’t score a half-point during the game.
Depending on the betting action, both the odds on each side and the line itself are subject to change leading up to the start of an event. Bookmakers do this so they can get enough money on either side of a wager that they’ll earn a profit no matter the outcome.
However, once your bet is accepted, it is locked in regardless of how the odds change before the game.
You should also know over/under bets include overtime. If you feel a game has a decent chance of ending regulation in a tie, betting on the over could be an effective strategy.
There are many factors that can influence over/under bets. We already mentioned the betting action, but team trends, weather conditions, injury reports, which team is the home team, and even who the referees/officials are can play a role in impacting whether a scoreline goes over or under!
Understanding how teams like to play is important, too. Some teams want to control the tempo to set up a high volume of scoring opportunities while others prefer to slow the game down to keep their opponent off the scoreboard.
Past performances don’t guarantee future results, but they can be useful in tracking a team’s tendencies. As with other types of betting, the more research you do beforehand that focuses on in-game matchups, the more likely you are to be successful in your wagers.
For successful over/under betting, we recommend the following strategies:
For some sports like hockey or baseball, the totals stay relatively consistent. Very few NHL games have an over/under line that falls outside of a range of 5.5-6.5 before puck drop, while MLB games tend to range between 6.0 and 9.0 runs.
However, in basketball or football games where more points are scored, there can be a greater degree of separation between the projected total and the actual total. The higher volatility makes them harder to predict and thus presumably more likely to cost you the leg in a parlay.
Rain, wind, snow, or extreme temperatures (hot or cold) frequently impact player performance in a negative way. According to WeatherStem.com, cold weather in NFL games causes punts to cover slightly shorter distances, completion percentages to drop by about 2%, and field goal accuracy to decrease slightly.
Some baseball games will end early if the rain is severe enough, and if at least 4.5 innings have been played, the score can go final. With fewer innings played, scoring is likely to be lower than for a full nine-inning game.
However, the opposite can be true for favorable wind conditions, especially in baseball. If the wind direction is consistently blowing to the outfield, fly balls that could’ve tailed off for an out may instead carry enough to be a home run.
Always check the weather reports before betting on an outdoor game.
There are many tools available to help you analyze matchups and find good data to project over/under totals, including right here on this site. Bettor In Green posts daily cheat sheets and injury report information to provide you with accurate details about NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL matchups.
While these cheat sheets are centered around player props, you can still utilize the data to calculate team scoring projects and compare/contrast with the numbers at various sportsbooks. You can sign up to access these cheat sheets today for the low cost of $9.99 per month.
As mentioned above, betting action plays a role in line and odds movement. The Cowboys-Giants game from earlier had the following lines three hours before kickoff:
Shopping for these subtle differences in odds will lead to greater differences in your profits over time. It’s always worth your time to take a few minutes investigating which bookie has the best odds for the wagers you plan to make!
Over/under betting is the basis for several other types of betting as well. Here are a few variations that may interest you:
To wrap things up, in many ways, over/under betting acts as a base for other betting types. Once you’ve mastered the basics of totals wagering, you can comfortably move on to other gambling markets.
If you feel comfortable with totals betting and are ready for something else, check out our guides to betting types to find an exciting new way to play. Remember to sign up for the cheat sheets as well to give yourself the best chance to win your wagers!
Yes, the over/under line may change after you place your bet. However, your bet will be locked in at the line amount when your wager was accepted. Future line movements provide the opportunity to hedge your bet or try to middle the score line.
If the total score exactly matches the over/under line, a push occurs. When there’s a push, sportsbooks return all stakes that matched the line as though the bets were never made. Sportsbooks try to avoid this and will often include half-points in their totals lines so there’s a clear winner and loser on the total.
Yes, over/under bets are available for all sports in some capacity. However, they may not always be tied to a final score and could instead include over/under props markets.
Over/under betting is functionally the same in football and basketball betting. However, basketball’s scoring system leads to a higher degree of volatility, meaning there are more opportunities for the final score to vary dramatically from the original line.
There are many factors you should consider when placing an over/under bet, including recent player and team performances, matchup tendencies, injury reports, weather conditions, line movement, and odds movement. Understanding both why and how the lines are what they are will aid you in making more correct totals wagers.
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