Notre Dame and Penn State Renew Rivalry in College Football Playoff Semifinal

When Notre Dame and Penn State meet under the bright lights of the Orange Bowl, it won’t just be a battle of storied programs but a fight in the trenches with two teams boasting extremely strong defenses and explosive offenses. While Penn State and The Fighting Irish have yet to appear in the playoff since the CFP era began in 2014, both teams now make strong cases for going all the way. In this article, Bettor In Green will provide its analysis on the matchup to help you break down the key factors and make informed decisions.

Notre Dame: Fighting Irish’s Case for Victory

• Record & Advanced Metrics. Notre Dame’s 13-1 record is no fluke, as evidenced by their 1st placed ranking defense in all of college football. While the team ranks 53rd in total offense, their net EPA (expected points added) is +0.34, slightly better than that of PSU (+0.33).
• Quarterback Play. Riley Leonard has thrown 9 TDs and 3 interceptions in his last 5 games. In those games, the QB did not dip below 62% in completion percentage and went as high as 80%. In addition to being a good passer Riley functions as a dual threat QB and has 831 rushing yards to go alongside his 2300 passing yards.
• Putting yourself in a position to win. Notre Dame continuously sets themselves up for success both offensively and defensively through good decisions, securing a starting net field position of +5.8 yards over their opponents, while PSU only sets themselves apart by 1.7 yards. On average, the Fighting Irish start their attack on the 33 yard line, while Penn State starts on their own 27.
• Defensive Dominance. Ranking 1st overall in defense is no fluke. -0.42 EPA/Pass (expected points added/pass) is a hefty margin for a pass defense. While the team only has an EPA of -0.02 against the run, this shows that Penn State either has to get their run game going early, or they are likely to get plugged.

Penn State: Nittany Lions’ Path to Victory

• Record & Advanced Metrics. Penn State’s 13-2 record is bolstered by a 7th-place ranked FPI (College football power index) rating. Penn State is seen as the most balanced team left in the CFP, ranking 6th in defensive efficiency and 8th in offensive efficiency.
• Dynamic Rushing Duo. The combination of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen gives Penn State one of the most formidable ground games in the nation. Together, they average 4.79 and 6.39 yards per carry behind a line with a 55% run-blocking success rate. Singleton’s breakaway run percentage (percentage of yards gained on runs of 15+ yards) is 47%, making him a constant home-run threat.
• Matchup Problems. Notre Dame does not have any elite, NFL level CBs that can hang with a true X receiver. As such, the team has largely relied on schemes to carry them through in the ACC. This could be a problem against Penn State, as standout WR Tyler Warren has had an elite season with 1047 yards, 6 TDs and 93% catch rate on 92 targets (86/92).
• Winning on 3rd down. In a game likely decided by the slimmest of margins, Penn State’s ability to convert on third down may set them apart. Penn State converts 49.7% of all third downs (11th in the nation in contrast to Notre Dame who ranks 53rd) and has an average third down distance of 6.14 yards.

Key Narratives Matchups

1. Inside Zone v Outside Zone Penn State has thrived on pre-snap exotic plays led by Andy Kotelnicki. While this has worked, the outside zone has by far been PSUs most effective play and should work well on an injured Notre Dame D-Line. Contrasting these playcalls, the Fighting Irish has found most of their success with inside zone, led by the dual threat of Leonard.
2. Penn State’s Rushing Attack vs. Notre Dame’s Defensive Front Notre Dame ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency while the Nittany Lions are 8th in offensive efficiency.
3. Star Injuries Standout edge rusher Abdul Carter could end up missing the game or have limited snaps depending on recovery time. This would go a long way towards limiting a Fighting Irish offense that was heavily reliant on a now injured Jeremiyah Love.
4. Misjudging SOS While Penn State has dealt with the 17th hardest strength of schedule in the nation, Notre Dame ranked 31st. These statistics have been a driving narrative, but may be misleading as Notre Dame ranks third in strength of record rank (SOR) and first in AVGWP (adjusted ranking for game control if other teams had their schedule), contrasting PSUs’ rank of 6th and 11th.

Final Prediction

While statistics play a key role in this matchup and we lean on the analytics to give us valuable insights, what has been laid out above is a very even game that could come down to a few plays or missed calls. It’s difficult to truly gauge the strength of PSU as a program given their loss to Oregon a few weeks back and the team was arguably given their dream matchup in Boise, a team that relies on a stout running game fueled by Jeanty more than any other program would.

Given OSUs’ beatdown of Oregon just recently, transitive properties should spell problems even if PSU can dig themselves out of this hole and come up big against Notre Dame. We choose to believe that is unlikely to occur, however. Notre Dame is red hot, fueled by a young head coach and media momentum. As outlined above, Notre Dame has been given a scheduling and statistically beneficial matchup and are sure to use it to their advantage.

Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Penn State 2